Topic Thread
4 published observations tracking this thread.
The September 18 Treasury curve shows a 25-basis-point 10-year premium over the 2-year and a 33-basis-point gap from the 10-year to the 30-year. The useful signal is the structure of long-term funding costs, not a single round number.
The important September Fed signal is not simply another 25-basis-point move. It is the combination of a higher current rate, a hotter inflation forecast, and a policy path that still sits above the June projection.
The September Fed decision is more than a quarter-point move: the rate is now higher, the projections remain dispersed, and inflation expectations still leave the path of future cuts or hikes uncertain.
The Bank of Japan's September decision matters because Japan is no longer operating at the ultra-low end of the global rate spectrum: the policy rate is 1.25%, yet the yen can still weaken when the market focuses on the pace of future tightening.
